Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression in the Investigation of Local COVID-19 Anomalies Based on Population Age Structure in Poland.

A growing number of various studies focusing on different aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic are emerging as the pandemic continues. Three variables that are most commonly used to describe the course of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide are the number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases, the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, and the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered. In this paper, using the multiscale geographically weighted regression, an analysis of the interrelationships between the number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases, the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, and the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered were conducted. Furthermore, using maps of the local R2 estimates, it was possible to visualize how the relations between the explanatory variables and the dependent variables vary across the study area. Thus, analysis of the influence of demographic factors described by the age structure and gender breakdown of the population over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic was performed. This allowed the identification of local anomalies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analyses were carried out for the area of Poland. The results obtained may be useful for local authorities in developing strategies to further counter the pandemic.

A spatiotemporal analysis of the social determinants of health for COVID-19.

This research aims to uncover how the association between social determinants of health and COVID-19 cases and fatality rate have changed across time and space. To begin to understand these associations and show the benefits of analysing temporal and spatial variations in COVID-19, we utilized Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The results emphasize the advantages for using GWR in data with a spatial component, while showing the changing spatiotemporal magnitude of association between a given social determinant and cases or fatalities. While previous research has demonstrated the merits of GWR for spatial epidemiology, our study fills a gap in the literature, by examining a suite of variables across time to reveal how the pandemic unfolded across the US at a county-level spatial scale. The results speak to the importance of understanding the local effects that a social determinant may have on populations at the county level. From a public health perspective, these results can be used for an understanding of the disproportionate disease burden felt by different populations, while upholding and building upon trends observed in epidemiological literature.

If you build it, will they come? Is test site availability a root cause of geographic disparities in COVID-19 testing?

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between test site availability and testing rate within the context of social determinants of health. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective ecological investigation was conducted using statewide COVID-19 testing data between March 2020 and December 2021. METHODS: Ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression were used to estimate state and ZIP code level associations between testing rate and testing sites per capita, adjusting for neighbourhood-level confounders. RESULTS: The findings indicate that site availability is positively associated with the ZIP code level testing rate and that this association is amplified in communities of greater economic deprivation. In addition, economic deprivation is a key factor for consideration when examining ethnic differences in testing in medically underserved states. CONCLUSION: The study findings could be used to guide the delivery of testing facilities in resource-constrained states.

Influence of the Demographic, Social, and Environmental Factors on the COVID-19 Pandemic-Analysis of the Local Variations Using Geographically Weighted Regression.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, an increasing number of different research studies focusing on various aspects of the pandemic are emerging. Most of the studies focus on the medical aspects of the pandemic, as well as on the impact of COVID-19 on various areas of life; less emphasis is put on analyzing the influence of socio-environmental factors on the spread of the pandemic. In this paper, using the geographically weighted regression method, the extent to which demographic, social, and environmental factors explain the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 is explored. The research was performed for the case-study area of Poland, considering the administrative division of the country into counties. The results showed that the demographic factors best explained the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2; the social factors explained it to a medium degree; and the environmental factors explained it to the lowest degree. Urban population and the associated higher amount and intensity of human contact are the most influential factors in the development of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis of the factors related to the areas burdened by social problems resulting primarily from the economic exclusion revealed that poverty-burdened areas are highly vulnerable to the development of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using maps of the local R2 it was possible to visualize how the relationships between the explanatory variables (for this research-demographic, social, and environmental factors) and the dependent variable (number of cases of SARS-CoV-2) vary across the study area. Through the GWR method, counties were identified as particularly vulnerable to the pandemic because of the problem of economic exclusion. Considering that the COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing, the results obtained may be useful for local authorities in developing strategies to counter the pandemic.

Spatiotemporal clusters and the socioeconomic determinants of COVID-19 in Toronto neighbourhoods, Canada.

The aim of this study is to identify spatiotemporal clusters and the socioeconomic drivers of COVID-19 in Toronto. Geographical, epidemiological, and socioeconomic data from the 140 neighbourhoods in Toronto were used in this study. We used local and global Moran's I, and space-time scan statistic to identify spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19. We also used global (spatial regression models), and local geographically weighted regression (GWR) and Multiscale Geographically weighted regression (MGWR) models to identify the globally and locally varying socioeconomic drivers of COVID-19. The global regression model identified a lower percentage of educated people and a higher percentage of immigrants in the neighbourhoods as significant predictors of COVID-19. MGWR shows the best fit model to explain the variables affecting COVID-19. The findings imply that a single intervention package for the entire area would not be an effective strategy for controlling COVID-19; a locally adaptable intervention package would be beneficial.

Effects of Meteorological Factors and Air Pollutants on COVID-19 Transmission under the Action of Control Measures.

At present, COVID-19 is still spreading, and its transmission patterns and the main factors that affect transmission behavior still need to be thoroughly explored. To this end, this study collected the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China by 8 April 2020. Firstly, the spatial characteristics of the COVID-19 transmission were investigated by the spatial autocorrelation method. Then, the factors affecting the COVID-19 incidence rates were analyzed by the generalized linear mixed effect model (GLMMs) and geographically weighted regression model (GWR). Finally, the geological detector (GeoDetector) was introduced to explore the influence of interactive effects between factors on the COVID-19 incidence rates. The results showed that: (1) COVID-19 had obvious spatial aggregation. (2) The control measures had the largest impact on the COVID-19 incidence rates, which can explain the difference of 34.2% in the COVID-19 incidence rates, while meteorological factors and pollutant factors can only explain the difference of 1% in the COVID-19 incidence rates. It explains that some of the literature overestimates the impact of meteorological factors on the spread of the epidemic. (3) The influence of meteorological factors was stronger than that of air pollution factors, and the interactive effects between factors were stronger than their individual effects. The interaction between relative humidity and NO2 was stronger. The results of this study will provide a reference for further prevention and control of COVID-19.

GIS-based spatio-temporal analysis and modeling of COVID-19 incidence rates in Europe.

The COVID-19 epidemic has emerged as one of the most severe public health crises worldwide, especially in Europe. Until early July 2021, reported infected cases exceeded 180 million, with almost 4 million associated deaths worldwide, almost a third of which are in continental Europe. We analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of the disease incidence and mortality rates considering specific periods in this continent. Further, we applied Global Moran's I to examine the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of COVID-19 incidence rates and Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis to represent high-risk areas of the disease. Additionally, we compiled a set of 40 demographic, socioeconomic, environmental, transportation, health, and behavioral indicators as potential explanatory variables to investigate the spatial variations of COVID-19 cumulative incidence rates (CIRs). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Spatial Lag model (SLM), Spatial Error Model (SLM), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) regression models were implemented to examine the spatial dependence and non-stationary relationships. Based on our findings, the spatio-temporal distribution pattern of COVID-19 CIRs was highly clustered and the most high-risk clusters of the disease were situated in central and western Europe. Moreover, poverty and the elderly population were selected as the most influential variables due to their significant relationship with COVID-19 CIRs. Considering the non-stationary relationship between variables, MGWR could describe almost 69% of COVID-19 CIRs variations in Europe. Since this spatio-temporal research is conducted on a continental scale, spatial information obtained from the models could provide general insights to authorities for further targeted policies.

Geographically weighted regression model for physical, social, and economic factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic spreading.

This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread and the role of the physical, social, and economic characteristics in this spreading. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was built within a GIS environment using infection data monitored by the Iraqi Ministry of Health records for 10 months from March to December 2020. The factors adopted in this model are the size of urban interaction areas and human gatherings, movement level and accessibility, and the volume of public services and facilities that attract people. The results show that it would be possible to deal with each administrative unit in proportion to its circumstances in light of the factors that appear in it. So, there will not be a single treatment for all areas with different urban characteristics, which sometimes helps not to stop social and economic life due to the imposition of a comprehensive ban on movement and activities. Therefore, there will be other supportive policies other than the ban, depending on the urban indicators for each region, such as reducing external movement from it or relying on preventing public activities only.

A Novel Predictor for Micro-Scale COVID-19 Risk Modeling: An Empirical Study from a Spatiotemporal Perspective.

Risk assessments for COVID-19 are the basis for formulating prevention and control strategies, especially at the micro scale. In a previous risk assessment model, various "densities" were regarded as the decisive driving factors of COVID-19 in the spatial dimension (population density, facility density, trajectory density, etc.). However, this conclusion ignored the fact that the "densities" were actually an abstract reflection of the "contact" frequency, which is a more essential determinant of epidemic transmission and lacked any means of corresponding quantitative correction. In this study, based on the facility density (FD), which has often been used in traditional research, a novel micro-scale COVID-19 risk predictor, facility attractiveness (FA, which has a better ability to reflect "contact" frequency), was proposed for improving the gravity model in combination with the differences in regional population density and mobility levels of an age-hierarchical population. An empirical analysis based on spatiotemporal modeling was carried out using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) in the Qingdao metropolitan area during the first wave of the pandemic. The spatiotemporally nonstationary relationships between facility density (attractiveness) and micro-risk of COVID-19 were revealed in the modeling results. The new predictors showed that residential areas and health-care facilities had more reasonable impacts than traditional "densities". Compared with the model constructed using FDs (0.5159), the global prediction ability (adjusted R2) of the FA model (0.5694) was increased by 10.4%. The improvement in the local-scale prediction ability was more significant, especially in high-risk areas (rate: 107.2%) and densely populated areas (rate in Shinan District: 64.4%; rate in Shibei District: 57.8%) during the outset period. It was proven that the optimized predictors were more suitable for use in spatiotemporal infection risk modeling in the initial stage of regional epidemics than traditional predictors. These findings can provide methodological references and model-optimized ideas for future micro-scale spatiotemporal infection modeling.

Spatial analysis of COVID-19 incidence and the sociodemographic context in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China, the outbreak of COVID-19 spread throughout the world and its impacts affect different populations differently, where countries with high levels of social and economic inequality such as Brazil gain prominence, for understanding of the vulnerability factors associated with the disease. Given this scenario, in the absence of a vaccine or safe and effective antiviral treatment for COVID-19, nonpharmacological measures are essential for prevention and control of the disease. However, many of these measures are not feasible for millions of individuals who live in territories with increased social vulnerability. The study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of COVID-19 incidence in Brazil's municipalities (counties) and investigate its association with sociodemographic determinants to better understand the social context and the epidemic's spread in the country. METHODS: This is an analytical ecological study using data from various sources. The study period was February 25 to September 26, 2020. Data analysis used global regression models: ordinary least squares (OLS), spatial autoregressive model (SAR), and conditional autoregressive model (CAR) and the local regression model called multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR). FINDINGS: The higher the GINI index, the higher the incidence of the disease at the municipal level. Likewise, the higher the nurse ratio per 1,000 inhabitants in the municipalities, the higher the COVID-19 incidence. Meanwhile, the proportional mortality ratio was inversely associated with incidence of the disease. DISCUSSION: Social inequality increased the risk of COVID-19 in the municipalities. Better social development of the municipalities was associated with lower risk of the disease. Greater access to health services improved the diagnosis and notification of the disease and was associated with more cases in the municipalities. Despite universal susceptibility to COVID-19, populations with increased social vulnerability were more exposed to risk of the illness.

Integrating Spatial Modelling and Space-Time Pattern Mining Analytics for Vector Disease-Related Health Perspectives: A Case of Dengue Fever in Pakistan.

The spatial-temporal assessment of vector diseases is imperative to design effective action plans and establish preventive strategies. Therefore, such assessments have potential public health planning-related implications. In this context, we here propose an integrated spatial disease evaluation (I-SpaDE) framework. The I-SpaDE integrates various techniques such as the Kernel Density Estimation, the Optimized Hot Spot Analysis, space-time assessment and prediction, and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). It makes it possible to systematically assess the disease concentrations, patterns/trends, clustering, prediction dynamics, and spatially varying relationships between disease and different associated factors. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the I-SpaDE, we apply it in the second largest city of Pakistan, namely Lahore, using Dengue Fever (DF) during 2007-2016 as an example vector disease. The most significant clustering is evident during the years 2007-2008, 2010-2011, 2013, and 2016. Mostly, the clusters are found within the city's central functional area. The prediction analysis shows an inclination of DF distribution from less to more urbanized areas. The results from the GWR show that among various socio-ecological factors, the temperature is the most significantly associated with the DF followed by vegetation and built-up area. While the results are important to understand the DF situation in the study area and have useful implications for public health planning, the proposed framework is flexible, replicable, and robust to be utilized in other similar regions, particularly in developing countries in the tropics and sub-tropics.

Spatial Prediction of COVID-19 in China Based on Machine Learning Algorithms and Geographically Weighted Regression.

COVID-19 has swept through the world since December 2019 and caused a large number of patients and deaths. Spatial prediction on the spread of the epidemic is greatly important for disease control and management. In this study, we predicted the cumulative confirmed cases (CCCs) from Jan 17 to Mar 1, 2020, in mainland China at the city level, using machine learning algorithms, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and partial least squares regression (PLSR) based on population flow, geolocation, meteorological, and socioeconomic variables. The validation results showed that machine learning algorithms and GWR achieved good performances. These models could not effectively predict CCCs in Wuhan, the first city that reported COVID-19 cases in China, but performed well in other cities. Random Forest (RF) outperformed other methods with a CV-R 2 of 0.84. In this model, the population flow from Wuhan to other cities (WP) was the most important feature and the other features also made considerable contributions to the prediction accuracy. Compared with RF, GWR showed a slightly worse performance (CV-R 2 = 0.81) but required fewer spatial independent variables. This study explored the spatial prediction of the epidemic based on multisource spatial independent variables, providing references for the estimation of CCCs in the regions lacking accurate and timely.

Temporal Geospatial Analysis of COVID-19 Pre-Infection Determinants of Risk in South Carolina.

Disparities and their geospatial patterns exist in morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 patients. When it comes to the infection rate, there is a dearth of research with respect to the disparity structure, its geospatial characteristics, and the pre-infection determinants of risk (PIDRs). This work aimed to assess the temporal-geospatial associations between PIDRs and COVID-19 infection at the county level in South Carolina. We used the spatial error model (SEM), spatial lag model (SLM), and conditional autoregressive model (CAR) as global models and the geographically weighted regression model (GWR) as a local model. The data were retrieved from multiple sources including USAFacts, U.S. Census Bureau, and the Population Estimates Program. The percentage of males and the unemployed population were positively associated with geodistributions of COVID-19 infection (p values < 0.05) in global models throughout the time. The percentage of the white population and the obesity rate showed divergent spatial correlations at different times of the pandemic. GWR models fit better than global models, suggesting nonstationary correlations between a region and its neighbors. Characterized by temporal-geospatial patterns, disparities in COVID-19 infection rate and their PIDRs are different from the mortality and morbidity of COVID-19 patients. Our findings suggest the importance of prioritizing different populations and developing tailored interventions at different times of the pandemic.

Space-Time Cluster's Detection and Geographical Weighted Regression Analysis of COVID-19 Mortality on Texas Counties.

As COVID-19 run rampant in high-density housing sites, it is important to use real-time data in tracking the virus mobility. Emerging cluster detection analysis is a precise way of blunting the spread of COVID-19 as quickly as possible and save lives. To track compliable mobility of COVID-19 on a spatial-temporal scale, this research appropriately analyzed the disparities between spatial-temporal clusters, expectation maximization clustering (EM), and hierarchical clustering (HC) analysis on Texas county-level. Then, based on the outcome of clustering analysis, the sensitive counties are Cottle, Stonewall, Bexar, Tarrant, Dallas, Harris, Jim hogg, and Real, corresponding to Southeast Texas analysis in Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) modeling. The sensitive period took place in the last two quarters in 2020 and the first quarter in 2021. We explored PostSQL application to portray tracking Covid-19 trajectory. We captured 14 social, economic, and environmental impact's indices to perform principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensionality and minimize multicollinearity. By using the PCA, we extracted five factors related to mortality of COVID-19, involved population and hospitalization, adult population, natural supply, economic condition, air quality or medical care. We established the GWR model to seek the sensitive factors. The result shows that adult population, economic condition, air quality, and medical care are the sensitive factors. Those factors also triggered high increase of COVID-19 mortality. This research provides geographical understanding and solution of controlling COVID-19, reference of implementing geographically targeted ways to track virus mobility, and satisfy for the need of emergency operations plan (EOP).

The effect of sociodemographic factors on COVID-19 incidence of 342 cities in China: a geographically weighted regression model analysis.

BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread quickly among the population and brought a severe global impact. However, considerable geographical disparities in the distribution of COVID-19 incidence existed among different cities. In this study, we aimed to explore the effect of sociodemographic factors on COVID-19 incidence of 342 cities in China from a geographic perspective. METHODS: Official surveillance data about the COVID-19 and sociodemographic information in China's 342 cities were collected. Local geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model and traditional generalized linear models (GLM) Poisson regression model were compared for optimal analysis. RESULTS: Compared to that of the GLM Poisson regression model, a significantly lower corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) was reported in the GWPR model (61953.0 in GLM vs. 43218.9 in GWPR). Spatial auto-correlation of residuals was not found in the GWPR model (global Moran's I = - 0.005, p = 0.468), inferring the capture of the spatial auto-correlation by the GWPR model. Cities with a higher gross domestic product (GDP), limited health resources, and shorter distance to Wuhan, were at a higher risk for COVID-19. Furthermore, with the exception of some southeastern cities, as population density increased, the incidence of COVID-19 decreased. CONCLUSIONS: There are potential effects of the sociodemographic factors on the COVID-19 incidence. Moreover, our findings and methodology could guide other countries by helping them understand the local transmission of COVID-19 and developing a tailored country-specific intervention strategy.

Geographically varying relationships of COVID-19 mortality with different factors in India.

COVID-19 is a global crisis where India is going to be one of the most heavily affected countries. The variability in the distribution of COVID-19-related health outcomes might be related to many underlying variables, including demographic, socioeconomic, or environmental pollution related factors. The global and local models can be utilized to explore such relations. In this study, ordinary least square (global) and geographically weighted regression (local) methods are employed to explore the geographical relationships between COVID-19 deaths and different driving factors. It is also investigated whether geographical heterogeneity exists in the relationships. More specifically, in this paper, the geographical pattern of COVID-19 deaths and its relationships with different potential driving factors in India are investigated and analysed. Here, better knowledge and insights into geographical targeting of intervention against the COVID-19 pandemic can be generated by investigating the heterogeneity of spatial relationships. The results show that the local method (geographically weighted regression) generates better performance ([Formula: see text]) with smaller Akaike Information Criterion (AICc [Formula: see text]) as compared to the global method (ordinary least square). The GWR method also comes up with lower spatial autocorrelation (Moran's [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) in the residuals. It is found that more than 86% of local [Formula: see text] values are larger than 0.60 and almost 68% of [Formula: see text] values are within the range 0.80-0.97. Moreover, some interesting local variations in the relationships are also found.

Exploration of spatial-temporal varying impacts on COVID-19 cumulative case in Texas using geographically weighted regression (GWR).

Since COVID-19 is extremely threatening to human health, it is significant to determine its impact factors to curb the virus spread. To tackle the complexity of COVID-19 expansion on a spatial-temporal scale, this research appropriately analyzed the spatial-temporal heterogeneity at the county-level in Texas. First, the impact factors of COVID-19 are captured on social, economic, and environmental multiple facets, and the communality is extracted through principal component analysis (PCA). Second, this research uses COVID-19 cumulative case as the dependent variable and the common factors as the independent variables. According to the virus prevalence hierarchy, the spatial-temporal disparity is categorized into four quarters in the GWR analysis model. The findings exhibited that GWR models provide higher fitness and more geodata-oriented information than OLS models. In El Paso, Odessa, Midland, Randall, and Potter County areas in Texas, population, hospitalization, and age structures are presented as static, positive influences on COVID-19 cumulative cases, indicating that they should adopt stringent strategies in curbing COVID-19. Winter is the most sensitive season for the virus spread, implying that the last quarter should be paid more attention to preventing the virus and taking precautions. This research is expected to provide references for the prevention and control of COVID-19 and related infectious diseases and evidence for disease surveillance and response systems to facilitate the appropriate uptake and reuse of geographical data.

COVID-19: A Comparative Study of Population Aggregation Patterns in the Central Urban Area of Tianjin, China.

When a public health emergency occurs, a potential sanitation threat will directly change local residents' behavior patterns, especially in high-density urban areas. Their behavior pattern is typically transformed from demand-oriented to security-oriented. This is directly manifested as a differentiation in the population distribution. This study based on a typical area of high-density urban area in central Tianjin, China. We used Baidu heat map (BHM) data to calculate full-day and daytime/nighttime state population aggregation and employed a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and Moran's I to analyze pre-epidemic/epidemic population aggregation patterns and pre-epidemic/epidemic population flow features. We found that during the COVID-19 epidemic, the population distribution of the study area tended to be homogenous clearly and the density decreased obviously. Compared with the pre-epidemic period: residents' demand for indoor activities increased (average correlation coefficient of the floor area ratio increased by 40.060%); traffic demand decreased (average correlation coefficient of the distance to a main road decreased by 272%); the intensity of the day-and-night population flow declined significantly (its extreme difference decreased by 53.608%); and the large-living-circle pattern of population distribution transformed to multiple small-living circles. This study identified different space utilization mechanisms during the pre-epidemic and epidemic periods. It conducted the minimum living security state of an epidemic-affected city to maintain the operation of a healthy city in the future.

Structural Inequalities Established the Architecture for COVID-19 Pandemic Among Native Americans in Arizona: a Geographically Weighted Regression Perspective.

Native Americans are disproportionately affected by COVID-19. The present study explores whether areas with high percentages of Native American residents are experiencing the equal risks of contracting COVID-19 by examining how the relationships between structural inequalities and confirmed COVID-19 cases spatially vary across Arizona using a geographically weighted regression (GWR). GWR helps with the identification of areas with high confirmed COVID-19 cases in Arizona and with understanding of which predictors of social inequalities are associated with confirmed COVID-19 cases at specific locations. We find that structural inequality indicators and presence of Native Americans are significantly associated with higher confirmed COVID-19 cases; and the relationships between structural inequalities and confirmed COVID-19 cases are significantly stronger in areas with high concentration of Native Americans, particular on Tribal lands. The findings highlight the negative effects that lack of infrastructure (i.e., housing with plumbing, transportation, and accessible health communication) may have on individual and population health, and, in this case, associated with the increase of confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Spatial distribution characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Beijing and its relationship with environmental factors.

Investigating the spatial distribution characteristics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and exploring the influence of environmental factors that drive it is the basis for formulating rational and efficient prevention and control countermeasures. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of COVID-19 pandemic in Beijing and its relationship with the environmental factors. Based on the incidences of new local COVID-19 cases in Beijing from June 11 to July 5, the spatial clustering characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Beijing was investigated using spatial autocorrelation analysis. The relation between COVID-19 cases and environmental factors was assessed using the Spearman correlation analysis. Finally, geographically weighted regression (GWR) was applied to explore the influence of environmental factors on the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases. The results showed that the development of COVID-19 pandemic in Beijing from June 11 to July 5 could be divided into two stages. The first stage was the outward expansion from June 11 to June 21, and the second stage (from June 22 to July 5) was the growth of the transmission in areas with existing previous cases. In addition, there was a ring of low value clusters around the Xinfadi market. This area was the key area for prevention and control. Population density and distance to Xinfadi market were the most critical factors that explained the pandemic development. The findings of this study can provide useful information for the global fighting against COVID-19.